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$45 a Vote...And For What?

Between $35 million and $40 million was spent on Wisconsin's recall elections. Was it really worth it?

 

Now that Wisconsin’s summer bout of recall madness has ended, let’s run the numbers.

About 769,000 votes were cast in the state’s eight primary and nine general elections for state Senate, according to unofficial results.

The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, a nonpartisan watchdog group, estimates that total spending on the races by special interest groups and (to a much lesser extent) the candidates’ campaigns will fall between $35 million and $40 million.

That breaks down to somewhere between $45 and $52 for each vote cast.

But the campaigns, waged in TV markets that went well beyond the geographic boundaries of the recall districts, had an impact beyond the votes they helped sway. Voters all over the state were exposed to a glut of toxic messages, in which public servants were painted as public enemies.

“The advertising was overwhelmingly negative,” notes Ken Goldstein, a former University of Wisconsin-Madison political science professor who ran the Wisconsin Advertising Project and now heads a national company that analyzes campaign ads.

One popular theory is that the purpose of negative campaign advertising is to dissuade people from voting at all.

Goldstein disagrees, saying the best available evidence shows that “negative advertising mobilizes and does not demobilize.” And, in fact, the turnout in these recalls was considered healthy for elections held in mid-summer without a big-name race on top of the ballot.

But what about the majority of Wisconsin voters who live in one of the 24 state Senate districts that did not have a recall election? What effect does this barrage of negative messages have on them?

To get a sense, I quizzed about a dozen people at the weekly farmers market in downtown Richland Center on Aug. 13, between the two sets of recall elections.

Richland Center is in the Senate district represented by Republican Dale Schultz, who was not targeted for recall. To the west, Democrat Jennifer Shilling unseated Republican Dan Kapanke. To the east, Republican Luther Olsen beat back a challenge from Democrat Fred Clark. Both were intensely competitive contests propelled by ads in the La Crosse and Madison television markets, respectively.

Most of the people I spoke to were deluged with messages for these races in which they couldn’t vote. None of them was favorably impressed.

“The ads told me who I shouldn’t vote for, not who I should,” remarked Jane Leussler, one of the vendors. The messages, she said, were so negative they seemed to suggest “it would be better to have no government.”

Jeff Johanning, an accountant who lives in Fennimore and works in Viroqua, considered the recall elections “a waste of taxpayers’ money” and tuned out the ads he was exposed to. “It didn’t affect me.”

“It just seemed to me that the candidates didn’t do much to promote themselves,” said Paul Swanson, a resident of northern Illinois who’s spending the summer in western Wisconsin. “The outside interests did it all.”

And the ads were so focused on attacking the other candidate that, for a time, Swanson said, “I didn’t realize Clark and Olsen were running against each other.”

Jane Mueller of Richland Center felt “continually bombarded” by the ads. “I think you get sort of numb to them.” She added that as a voter she would give little credence to anything an ad has to say: “They tell half-truths.”

Sharon Storms, a Richland Center resident who teaches in Reedsburg, said she was “disgusted” by how difficult it was to know who was paying for the ads she saw. She said she did a number of Internet searches to check the veracity of the claims being made but found it difficult to find authoritative information.

Let’s give the last word to Bob Naegele, a retired mechanical engineer who lives in Richland Center: “I’m glad the advertising has stopped.”

Bill Lueders is the Money and Politics Project director at the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism. The project, a partnership of the Center and MapLight, is supported by the Open Society Institute.

Related Topics: 8th Senate District, Campaign Finance, Political advertising, Recall, Wisconsin Recalls, recall election, and wisconsin legislature

Drive To 24

7:58 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Well Bill- if you look at the Sunday editorial in the JS you will understand "for what". For what Bill?- how about the greatest examples of democracy at work. The millions spent on attack ads appeared to cancel each other out. For what? How about Walker realizing he can't push his extreme agenda down our throats. For What? When the CB law and redistricting gets shot back to the senate you will realize for what. Dig a little deeper Bill. Thanks for your article.

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Gofaq Uurslf

8:05 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Don't mind the union sympathizers on here Bill. They're mad about that $30 million being taken out of their paychecks.

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Drive To 24

9:33 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Nate- $30 million taken out of union paychecks. Let me educate you Nate. The cost for those ads came from multiple sources including nonunion individuals who can't stand what Walker is doing. FOR WHAT NATE? YOU!

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Andrew Martin

9:29 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

That would be 30 million dollars taken out of our local economy by the government.

Dennis Allen

8:42 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Once again Nate , you put your foot in your mouth. You think the Dems were the only ones spending money on ads ? " 30 million being taken out of their paychecks ." You need to get a life.

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Gofaq Uurslf

10:03 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Well my point proven these clowns still have burrs in their panties.

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Craig

10:25 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

@Nate...Those aren't burns, those are skid marks. The fact of the matter is a ton of money was spent on these recalls- over half by the Dems and mainly Union money. If they really cared about the little guy- why didn;t they spend the money helping the little guy? Think of the financial aid that could have been given to the hungry and homeless.
The good news is the Unions will not be burned again- they are not going to spend millions here in WI again. By the time Walker is eligible to recall, they will see the good that has come BRB. Wisconsin's economy is going to improve ahead of the Nation- sadly that means the Unions funds will improve due to Walker's actions.
And the idiots will use that money to try to oust him from office.

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Keith Schmitz

11:46 pm on Sunday, August 21, 2011

Reality as usual begs to differ. A lion's share of the money was poured in by right wing corporate interests, intended to control YOUR lives. Despite that, Democrats won in five out of the nine races. Out time beat their money.

Yeah, we're seeing already "the good that has come from the BRB," 12.500 private sector jobs lost last month. Looks, like Germanfest failed to pick up the slack.

Unlike the yahoos in Texas who fail to hold Perry accountable for what is really a piss pour economy in terms of creating real jobs, people are too smart.

Walker will screw up like he screwed up in Milwaukee county but with jobs at stake people this time will pay attention. And like a dead fish, the longer Walker hangs around the more he smells, and he'll be smelling real good by the time recall rolls around. The only idiots in this game will be those who back Walker.

Come next spring in this political Star Wars saga it will be The Return of the Jedi.

Kiernan

5:03 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

Was spending $40 million to finance the recent recall elestions worthwhile? Well now, I suppose the answer depends on whether or not you think elected officials should be publicly accountable.

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CowDung

8:21 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

They are publicly accountable--we require all of our elected officials to stand for re-election at the end of their terms...

paul peck

6:28 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

To answer the question, yes, it was worth the money. If people can sacrifice their lives to establish and defend the Constitution, the least we can do is to hold an election for those who died to freely give us this inheritance, a legacy that many of those who went before us never lived to enjoy themselves. yes, it was worth it. Now, if only they could stop gerrymandering the districts!

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paul peck

6:34 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

However, I have long believed that the Shorewood Men's club or other group in Shorewood should hold elections for "Village Idiot". The rules would be simple. Only persons volunteering to be on the ballot could be on the ballot (no write ins)....No candidate can accept donations to fund his or her campaign, and there would be a charge to purchase each ballot, say 1-5 dollars with all the money would go to charity. In support of a sound, grass roots community fund raising event, the village could issue an "Official" certification for the position of "Village Idiot" In such an election, I would campaign hard to be the offical "Village Idiot" of Shorewood, but most people believe I do not have to try very hard.

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paul peck

6:57 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

The number that is cited for the cost per ballot in this blog is said to have come from "Special interest groups and candidate campaign funds". It should be worth noting that both are funding sources that do not use public money and are not supposed to be tax deductible. One could argue that this high dollar amount spent by privately funded sources is in itself an expression of the democratic process, and in some ways could be a more useful representation of the public conscience than a regulated vote in established gerrymadered districts. I am very very sick of all the politico ads. I do not like them and despise them as much as anyone....but this blog takes a number of private money and seems to distort the number as the cited cost was a public expense. I am sure there were public expenses to holding an election, but these are not cited. There are logical flaws in the premise on which this dialog is based. It is a shame that some have commented on this flawed premise. It would be more useful to demonstrate the actual costs from the public coffers and ask the same question as those costs are the only ones relevant to the authors question. To propose numbers that are not relevant to the question, but only sublimate in order to appear so is no better than propaganda of Stalin, Hitler, or Fox News.

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dpatric2

7:18 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

In a way we should appreciate the infusion of the campaign money into the Wisconsin economy. It will offset the millions of dollars that won't be spent by public workers after the reduced paychecks go into effect the end of August!

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Anne

10:11 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

Ask the folks who supplied the cash if they're happy with the results. I threw all paper ads into the trash, refused to answer my phone and stopped watching local tv. I knew who I was going to vote for and no amount of money spent changed my mind.

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Drive To 24

11:45 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

Yeah - the ads, mailings, telephone calls seemed to cancel each other out. Yet the television ads against Darling really felt good regardless of the outcome.

Kit Vernon

11:35 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

For what? For sending a message to Walker, Darling and the rest of the trogolodytes. Yeah, the Trogs kept a small majority, but does anyone in his/her right mind think Scott the Twerp would be make conciliatory noises, no matter how insincere, had he not seen that there would be serious pushback? All he's trying to do is to forestall his own recall election, but it won't work.

I, for one, will do my damnedest to get him out next year!

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Drive To 24

11:47 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

It's certainly not in Walker's DNA to compromise or work with people. We shall see. In the meantime, sign the pledge to recall Walker.

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Kiernan

11:51 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

If nothing else, the outcome of therecall election sends a message to Darling and the other Walker clones that their far-right agenda doesn't play well, and that the voters expect greater bipartisanship and a more moderate stance.

One could hardly claim Darling's victory as a resounding win. In reality, 45% if her constituents think she's doing such a lousy job she should be ousted before her term expires, That's not much of a mandate, is it?

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CowDung

11:58 am on Monday, August 22, 2011

You're claiming that 45% of Darlings constituents think she should be ousted before her term expires?

I hope you aren't a math teacher...

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Kiernan

1:14 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

ALBERTA DARLING, 39,449 -- 53.62%
SANDRA K. PASCH, 34,071 -- 46.31%

What part did I get wrong, Cow Dung?

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CowDung

1:19 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

The part where 34,000 people represent 46% of Darling's constituents...

paul peck

12:15 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Well, given that Ozaukee county is the most partisan district in the State (even though walker claims its Madison, with an average 60% to 40% Democrat to Republican pattern, Ozaukee county has been a 30% to 70% split for over the last decade)....Given the heavy bias of the North end of Darlings district, I find it hard to accept that Ozaukee County basically determines the representation for the entire north shore and north end of Milwaukee. Actually the numbers show that in shorewood, more than 45% of darlings constituents wish she were gone, and of course, the final polls from an entirely different county dictate the representation we have.

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Jay Sykes

12:31 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

@paul peck.... With the redistricting plan, Shorewood will be represented by Lena Taylor. Hope you can find her less hard to accept than Alberta Darling.

Kiernan

12:17 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

There we go with the insults again, Cow Dung. Is that the only gear you've got -- insulting people's professional capabilities? Are you here you have a discussion, or to play the troll?

I don't happen to have Darling's exact margin of victory. Perhaps you'f like to enlighten us. But, however you slcie it, an alarmingly large contingent of SD8 constituents voted to throw Darling out! She does not have anything resembling a sweeping mandate in this dirtict -- of course your GOP friends will fix that by creating a gerrymander!

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CowDung

12:36 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

The point isn't about darling's margin of victory. Do you honestly think that the approximate number of 34,000 people that came out to vote for Pasch represent 46% of the total number of Darling's constituents?

paul peck

12:21 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

If special interest campaign costs serves as an arguement against a recall, why did the Republicans force a primary to extend the process? Even the Wisconsin Republican party said it was to delay the recall and give the republican party time to raise money for the re election campaign.

And now they claim the money they raised from private donations for the recall call campaign is proof of government waste!

king oedepus did not believe he was the cause of the blight on thebes, and tore out his eyes when he saw the light. "The fault lies not in our stars horatio, but in ourselves" wrote the immortal bard.

Mankind has not evolved.

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paul peck

12:37 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

and the new redistricting map is even worse. There are only 3 counties that have an historically strong democratic vote. Milwaukee, Dane, and Bayfield. These average only about 55-45% up to 60-40% averages for a democrat ballot majority. Most counties in Wisconsin are very close with margins that favor republicans within 5%, and a few that historically are 60-40% or better to favor Republican ballots. Ozaukee county historically being at least 70-30% favoring republicans. The new redistricting map for example, dilutes Bayfield by adding it to a district with many more republican voters so now the people of Fond du lac can dictate who will represent Bayfield county! Where is the conservative voice that decries how the government is too tyranical and has too much power? Where is the Conservative in one county who practices what they preach and calls for a representation map that allows them to have their chosen representative, but will also stand up for the communities that are deprived of the same liberty? Where is the Conservative that will do on to others as they wish to have done on to them, instead of gerrymandering a district to gain even more?

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Kiernan

12:43 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

I disagree that unions are on their last gasp, Patriot. That's just the view the Koch boys and their corporate croniew want to perpetuate.

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CowDung

12:59 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Not necessarily on their last gasp, but the 'political machine' aspect of the unions has been severely weakened, and in the private sector, unions have been on the decline for years. The decline is likely because the unions have outlived their real purpose. It's only natural for the public unions to follow the same trend, as they are even less necessary in the modern workplace.

paul peck

12:50 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

the question, is "45 dollars a ballot....for what?"

the answer is "those who paid the money have gotten a great deal of satisfaction from spending it, proving to themselves the glory of their own rightness."

and if you consider that 45 dollars is less than good seats to a ball game, its a fair ticket price based on free market rates.

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CowDung

12:54 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Personally, I think that $45 is too much to pay to see most ball games...

Kiernan

1:12 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Cow Dung --
Kindly have your facts straight the next time you chose to insult my mathematical skills.

The vote totals in the 8th Senate District recall election, certified last Thursday by the Government Accountability Board, show that Sandy Pasch netted 34,071 votes, or 46.31% of the vote total.

In answer to your earlier question, I have no choice but to believe those numbers reflect that nearly half of all voters in SD8 wanted Darling run out on a rail before the end of her term! You see, that's one of the basic tenets of our electoral system; Those that vote speak for those who don't!

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CowDung

1:17 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Where were the flaws in my math? I corrected stated an approximate number of 34,000 votes and a correct percentage of 46%. My problem with your statement is that the number of voters in this past recall election do not represent the entirety of Darling's constituents...

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235301

3:47 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Well CD, EVERYONE in this district is a constituent. What I think you are getting at is that Darling's past supporters were surely not swayed to vote for Pasch. Darling actually won the recall by a wider margin than she did in her last election. So the takeaway there is that Darling's support is actually stronger now than when she was last elected.

paul peck

2:09 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

and of course the new district that puts shorewood in lana taylors district is done so because of greater fairness exclusively, and eliminates gerrymandering....lol!

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Jay Sykes

3:07 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

It's Not Lana....That's....'Don't you know who I AM"...LENA TAYLOR.....

Greg

3:07 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

The recalls were a farce, a waste of money and a waste of resources. Most of the voters had no comprehension of the issues at hand. The recall laws need reform. Our state has seen too many displays of political theater, most with little effect. I think some actual thought into policy would be refreshing.

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Drive To 24

3:42 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

The " Tragedy Of Scott Walker" will have a one year run in Wisconsin. Now I wouldn't call it a farce Greg unless you consider losing 2 senate seats and seeing all of the DEM senators reelected a light humorous event of sorts. I got my money's worth Greg. Thought would be good though.

paul peck

3:39 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

so much emotion over a vowel

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CowDung

4:17 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Are you surprised? Vowels have a lot of value--Pat Sajak and Vanna give away consonants for free, but if you want a vowel, they make you pay...

paul peck

4:20 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

235301...you are correct in the fact that in the recall election, Darling won by 53.62% and in 2008 she won by about 50.1%. In 2008 by about 50,125 votes, and in the recall election 10,676 fewer votes than she did in 2008, or 39,449 ballots cast. You are correct Darling won by a larger margin. Yet there are different ways this can be interpreted. In 2008, Sheldon Wasserman received 15,047 more votes than Sandy Pasch did in the recall election. This difference is over 38% of Darlings total votes in the recall election. Maybe you are right, and the 2.6% greater margin in which Darling won the recall is more significant than the loss of over 10,000 of her past supporters, showing a more solid base of core support for darling. But it could also be interpreted that Sheldon Wasserman may have been a stronger opponent than was Pasch. Maybe....there are many ways things can be interpreted. Some ways are useful, some are not, some ways seem straightforward. sometimes things that are counter intuitive are revealed. maybe you are right. but maybe there is more to interpretation.

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paul peck

5:08 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

in the '70s, Steve Martin had a joke that the best way to curb over population was to pass a law that mandated death penalty for the parking violation. I guess now it should be death penalty for a typo.....but you have a point about....in the 1800rds, most of the Federal Budget was funded by import taxes, and a law passed that said there would be "no taxes on imported Fruit-Trees..." but because of a typo, the signed bill read "no taxes on imported Fruit, Trees..." it took 6 months to correct and a steady loss of revenue as a result. My Lena forgive me for my typo, but thankfully my typo did not deprive the government of its revenue but unfortunately, my typo did not give reprieve to the tax payer, which once did occur in our nations history so many years ago due to a typo. Sometimes the file clerk wields more power than all the kings horses and all the kings men, and sometimes I am like humpty dumpty.

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Kiernan

5:55 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Darling lost to Wassernam by a slim 1007 votes. However, there were over 100,000 votes cast in that election . . . less tan in the recall. The takeaway there is that Pasch didn;t face a challenger with name recognition and an established track record. She was lucky!

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Kiernan

6:18 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Cow Dung --
You seem to infer that there are legions of Darling supporters that simply chose not to vote in when their champion was being recalled.. That's just not reality, but it doesn't really matter.

As I said before. those that don't vote don't count. The statistics speak for themselves; 46.31 percent of voters thought Alberta deserved her walking papers-- and I'm one of them!

Look, you can argue it however you wish. Darling's mandate in SD8 is

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Kiernan

6:25 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Wasserman would have kicked Darling's bony keister around the block, except that the GOP promised to draw him out of his own district if he decided to run.

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Kiernan

6:39 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

CD: "My problem with your statement is that the number of voters in this past recall election do not represent the entirety of Darling's constituents..."

KB: Oh, but I'm afraid they do represent the entirety of Darling's constituents! The folks that didn't care enough to vote allow those that did cast ballots to speak for them.

You assert that there are legions of Darling supporters who sat at home rather than coming to the aid of their candidate. Where were they? Why would they sit at home, rather than springing to the aid of their recalled candidate?

The fact is that those legions of non-voting Darling minions don't really exist, and your assetion doesn't hold water. In the 2008 general election, 49 percent of the voters preferred Sheldon Wasserman to Alberta. Do you mean to suggest that throngs of Darling supporters stayed away from the polls then, too? B*llsh*t!

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jbw

1:07 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

It's at least as misleading to imply that people who don't bother to participate in a recall election want the incumbent recalled. Did it occur to either of you that maybe they just don't feel strongly one way or the other, or don't believe the self-righteous hype of either camp? But I suppose once you replace fact with faith it's impossible to believe anyone in his right mind could disagree with your beliefs.

Drive To 24

7:23 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

It is what it is- Darling can now coninue ignore with greater blindness ) as she did before) all the blue wards who can't stand her and wanted her out. 34 thousand + wanted her out. I am proud to say that I worked my keister off trying to remove this sorry excuse for a state senator. No regrets. Many rewards to seeing this Prozac babe sweat and work for her votes.

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paul peck

9:19 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Our system is not those who vote speak for those who don't. That is rule by mob and nothing more than pogrom riots and contrary to the tradition of common law. That is a principle of rule by mob.

Gerrymandering allows the politicians to choose the voters, not the other way around.

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Kiernan

11:14 pm on Monday, August 22, 2011

Actually, that's not mob rule; that's democracy. You can either vote and express your opinion, or you can chose not to vote and leave your opinion unexpressed. As Louis L'Amour once observed, "To make democracy work, we must be a notion of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain."

I'm sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what point you are trying to make about common law. As I'm sure you're aware, elections are governed by statutory law, not common law.

Yes, a gerrymander occures when district boundaries are drawin is such a way as to establish a political advantage for a particular party or group, The GOP-created redistricting plan effectively makes SD8 a "safe" district for republicans. Isn't that a gerrymander?

Jerry Menting

12:20 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

In economics the spending is not an issue. The return on investment is what
counts. Invested in education and infrastructure you'd see a net gain. This would
more than justify the expense. Invested in political recall campaigns the ROI is
-zip. and the money is gone forever.

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jbw

12:55 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

No, it certainly wasn't an efficient use of money. It did give some people who feel they've been marginalized an opportunity to vent. And it proved what we already knew: calling a do-over on a closely-decided election may cause the outcome to flip one way or the other each time, and as a state we remain narrowly divided politically.

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Kiernan

8:27 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"It's at least as misleading to imply that people who don't bother to participate in a recall election want the incumbent recalled."

JBW, I"LL THANK YOU NOT TO PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH! I never said that people who don't vote want the incumbent recalled. The point is that It's impossible to know what they want.

What I said is that people who don't vote lose out on an opportunity to make their opinions known and have their voice heard. Specifically, I was refuting Cow Dung. who claims Darling enjoys more widespread support in her district than the vote totals suggest. He seems to think there are legions of Darnling voters who mysteriously opted not to vote in the recall election.

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CowDung

8:38 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I am not claiming that Darling enjoys more widespread support than the vote totals suggest. I am in disagreement with what you believe the vote totals suggest. I would argue that those who want Darling out of office are the ones that cast their votes for Pasch. Those that don't want Darling out of office either voted for Darling or didn't vote at all. It seems rather logical that if one really wants someone removed from office, they are going to cast a vote to do it. If they don't cast a vote, it makes sense to assume that they either don't care if she is removed or not.

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Kiernan

9:13 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Cow Dung, what you’re claiming is that all 39,449 people who voted for Darling plus all the people who didn’t vote at all wanted to keep the incumbent. That’s simply asinine! Unless you are The Amazing Kreskin, how could you possibly know that?

You have no basis, other than your own personal bias, for claiming every non-voter as a Darling supporter. Isn’t it possible that there were Pasch supporters that didn’t vote, or eligible voters who simply didn’t give a rip for either candidate?

The vote margins more or less accurately reflect Darling’s razor thin approval rating. Slice it however you will, slightly less than half of Alberta's constituents would rather be represented by someone else. This is borne out by the recall results, by the results of the November 2008 general election, and numerous independent polls.

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Steve

9:33 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Kiernan- This was not a normal election. This was a recall election spurred on by emotion. Anyone that felt that thrill up their leg of recalling a republican most likely participated by voting for Pasch. Those that didn't care or supported what was going on with Darling either voted, or stayed at home.

It is logical to say that a higher percentage of voters that did not vote support Darling. Remember, 48% of the primary votes in MF went to a fake republican. Darling won pretty easily.

Kiernan

8:34 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I have long enjoyed the friendship and companionship of Republicans because I am by instinct a teacher, and I would like to teach them something.
Woodrow Wilson

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Kiernan

9:18 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Cow Dung, what you’re claiming is that all 39,449 people who voted for Darling plus all the people who didn’t vote at all wanted to keep the incumbent. That’s simply asinine! Unless you are The Amazing Kreskin, how could you possibly know that?

You have no basis, other than your own personal bias, for claiming every non-voter as a Darling supporter. Isn’t it possible that there were Pasch supporters that didn’t vote, or eligible voters who simply didn’t give a rip for either candidate?

The vote margins more or less accurately reflect Darling’s razor thin approval rating. Slice it however you will, slightly less than half of Alberta's constituents would rather be represented by someone else. This is borne out by the recall results, by the results of the November 2008 general election, and numerous independent polls.

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CowDung

9:23 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I stated that non-voters either supported Darling or they didn't care. If someone really wanted her out of office, it makes sense that they would be motivated to go out and vote for her removal..

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CowDung

9:24 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Let's try this again--the 46% that voted against her represent 46% of the people that voted, not 46% of Darling's constituents...

Kiernan

9:28 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"Darling had a job approval rating of 51 percent with 46 percent disapproving."
-- Daily Kos poll, July 28, 2011

Wow, that sure seems to validate the election results!

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CowDung

9:32 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Didn't the Daily Kos also claim that Pasch was ahead in the polling? I'm not sure that I place a lot of faith in the polling methods of a lefty organization...

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CowDung

9:34 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

...and who was polled? Likely voters? Random people? Adults of voting age, but not necessarily likely voters?

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Kiernan

10:22 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Let's try THIS again, and this time I'll use small words so you'll be sure to understand. What the people who didn't vote think doesn't matter. They gave up their opportunity to have a say. They allowed those that voted to speak on their behalf.

Moreover, the results of the 2008 general election and numerous independent polls statistically prove that about 46 percent of the people in SD8 want Darling gone.

If you have some source showing that legions of Darling supporters inexplicably stayed away from the polls, please provide a citation. Otherwise, you really need to abandon your ridiculous and unproven assertion that all the people in SD8 who didn't vote are also Darling supporters.

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235301

4:03 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Kiernan: Let me talk even slower for you, I'll use some math symbols here, so take it in slowly:

46% < 50%

Last time I checked, in a two person race all you need is >50% of the vote to win. To keep harping on this 46% as some validation that a majority of SD8 wants Darling gone is ludicrous. Actually, it's delusional.

CowDung's assertions actually make quite a bit of sense...the 46% that voted for Pasch were her base and the constituents that wanted Darling out. Those that voted for Darling are likely staunch supporters. Those that didn't vote either didn't care or at least shaded towards Darling. Otherwise, if they had any animosity towards Darling they would have gotten off their keester and voted. His assertion makes much more sense than your assertion that "46% of SD8 voting for Pasch" = "Majority of SD8 wants Darling gone". Again, there I go using math symbols, hope that didn't confuse you.

And remember, your golden boy in the WH has an approval rating of 40%. Sure seems to validate the election results of 08. In the third year of a presidency his score of 40% is only beaten by Jimmy Carter in his third year(32% in 8/79). The parallels never seem to end.

Steve

9:33 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Has anyone herd from Pasch, did she dig a hole and go into hiding? Or did the unions take care of her with cement boots?

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CowDung

9:35 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I'm still waiting for her to reply to my e-mails. I guess that I'm not important enough for an elitist like Pasch to care about me...

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Kiernan

10:40 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Sandy Pasch is probably avoiding you because of your attrocious spelling. You probably meant HEARD, as in "I heard what you said," not HERD as in "a herd of cattle."

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CowDung

10:47 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Who are you referring to with your "attrocious" spelling comment?

John Pokrandt

9:50 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

For what? How about putting the breaks on Walker and his corporate lobbyist sponsered legislative attack on Wisconsin. Now at least there will be some compromise and perhaps a few of the Republicans may re-think whether they want to be buried with Walker or actually represent their districts. I have always been an independent and have voted for both Republicans and Democrats over the years. This current crop is radical and not representative of what the GOP in Wisconsin has ever stood for. I supported Tommy Thompson, I do not support Scott Walker. After the job he did in Milwaukee County he shouldn't have been elected dog catcher!

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Kiernan

10:35 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

If $45 per vote was the cost of curbing Walker and his big money handlers, it was money well spent. The net result of this recall is that the republican goon squad has been put on notice that the GOP has migrated too far to the right. The people have flexted their electoral muscle and reminded the powers-that-be that they are still accountable to the voters. They have said with a singular, resounding voice that moderation and bipartisanship are expected, and that rogues like Walker, Fitzgerald and Darling will be taken to task for actions that run contrary to the will of the people.

Kiernan

10:03 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Cow Dung, you don't trust polls conducted by a "lefty organization?" Hell, you don't trust anybody that doesn't support your twisted point of view.

While it is admittedly a liberal organization, The Daily Koz's polls have always been fair, objective, and scientific. They have never been skewed to show support Democratic candidates when that support didn't exist.

The survey I quoted polled 1,476 likely voters and was conducted [over a four day period]. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

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Steve

12:07 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Funniest thing I have read all week. How'd that one Kos poll that put Pasch up 4 points work out for ya? If you are going to spew liberal garbage at least know how to spin it correctly.

Ok, time for you to talk down on me like a typical Elitist keyboard warrior.

Kiernan

11:14 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Cow Dung, I was referring to Steve who seems to confuse the words HERD and HEARD.

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CowDung

11:30 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

...or maybe it was just a typo. You also may want to check your own spelling when you make a post critical of someone's spelling.

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Steve

12:10 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Really? A grammar error, first time on the internet for you? Or does the Kos pay extra for being a n00b on forums.

Kiernan

11:49 am on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Steve, you delude yourself into believing Darling's base of support is broader than it really is. In reality, it's razor thin, and the results of the 2008 election, numerous polls and the recall numbers prove it.

You also delude yourself about the character of this election. It wasn't fueled by the emotions of knee-jerk liberals. It was brought on by responsible citizens who expect accountability and transparency in government.

Yeah, it's easy to say that every lefty in the district swarmed to the polls, while thousands of Darling supporters inexplicably stayed home allowing their favored candidate to face recall without their support. But that ain't reality. The republicans tried just as hard as the dems to mobilize every possible voter, but 39,449 is all the GOP could muster.

So where were all those non-voting Darling supporters in the 2008 general election when Darling clung to her office by a paltry 1007 votes? Did they stay home then, too? Did they also decline to participate in polling? The fact is that your silent majority does not exist, and that Alberta did not win easily. I know for a fact that your candidate was sweating bullets!

"Bad officials are the ones elected by good citizens who do not vote."
George Jean Nathan

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Steve

12:17 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I think you mean "isn't" or "is not"

But 34,096 is all the unions could muster. My number is smaller than yours.

Kiernan

12:06 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"If someone really wanted her out of office, it makes sense that they would be motivated to go out and vote for her removal."

By the same token, it seems that someone who really wanted to retain Darling would be motivated to go out and vote for her, rather than sit idly at home. The Darling minons were out in force. Their official number, as far as I and the State of Wisconsin are concerned, is 39.449 . . . a pathetic showing for an incumbent in a district of some 180,000 people!

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Kiernan

12:11 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"Funniest thing I have read all week. How'd that one Kos poll that put Pasch up 4 points work out for ya? If you are going to spew liberal garbage at least know how to spin it correctly. Ok, time for you to talk down on me like a typical Elitist keyboard warrior."

The one Daily Kos poll was scientifically conducted and accurately reflected (within a small margin of error) public sentiments at that time. I'm sure you are aware, however, that there is a certain ebb and flow in the course of an election as undecided voters migrate toard one candidate or the other.

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Steve

12:20 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

It was 12 points off only a week or so before the election. If you are going to defend a liberal website with bias polling at least back it up with something that actually holds water.

CowDung

12:12 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Perhaps a better gauge of how many people want Darling removed from office would be the number of recall signatures collected. It seems that the canvassers went to every home in the district at least once (they came to my home three times), stood on street corners and at various public gatherings. If all they could get were between 20k and 30k signatures (out of 180k people), it would indicate that the vast majority of people (5 out of every 6) wanted Darling to stay in office...

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Kiernan

12:14 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Ain't that just like a right-wing whack job? When you present them with hard evidence, they try to discredit the source. When you prove them wrong, they resort to name-calling. Whose the elitist keyboard warrior here?

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Steve

12:23 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

I am sorry to poke holes in your favorite website. I could quote things I read on Rushlimbaugh.com or redstate if it would make you feel better.

Kiernan

12:48 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"Perhaps a better gauge of how many people want Darling removed from office would be the number of recall signatures collected."

As for recall petitions, we collected 20% more signatures than required to compensate for any that might have been 'disqualified.' After that we stopped gathering as a concession to time. Given more time, we'd have gathered more -- many more,

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Kiernan

1:03 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Once again, stop impugning the polling agency just because their numbers don't support your argument.

Actually, the daily Kos polls tend to very accurate and objective. They are scientifically constructed and use random sampling techniques. To my knowledge, they have never reflected partisan bias.When the dems are up, they report that. When the dems are trailing, they report that, too.

It bears note that the Daily Kos numbers are also corroborated by independent polling organizations. For instance, a July 13 and 14 poll conducted by the Mellman Group showed Pasch pulling slightly ahead with 47 percent of the votes, compared with Darling's 46 percent. The magrin of errot was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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235301

5:10 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"the daily Kos polls tend to very accurate and objective"...Oh come now...they bill themselves as " the largest progressive community blog in the United States". Liberals calling themselves progressives is a lot like the creationists renaming creationism as "intelligent design".

Let's take a little sampling on the bios of the writers on the site:

"Soon after the 2000 selection of George W. Bush as POTUS, she got her first computer, discovered the internets and a shared outrage."

"Before coming on board with Daily Kos, he worked as a consultant on a wide variety of campaigns for MoveOn, Media Matters, SEIU, the PCCC, and the New Organizing Institute."

" As the scope of incompetence and malfeasance in the Bush Administration and the wider Neoconservative Republican Party became evident throughout 2003, Stephen began reading and writing on blogs. In short order, he rejected the existing incarnation of the GOP and joined forces with progressive bloggers. "

"The children are being raised as Democrats, so there is no need to call the authorities."

There is nothing independent or objective about the Daily Kos

Kiernan

1:04 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Make that: "The magrin of ERROR was plus or minus 5 percentage points."

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Kiernan

1:09 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Rushlimbaugh.com or redstate if it would make you feel better."

Rush Limbaugh? Now THERE"S a credible and unbiased source! The man is a drug-addicted, ultra-liberal, screed-spewing entartainer!

Oh, and if you're referring to Daily Kos as my "favorite website," you're sadly mistaken.

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Greg

4:45 pm on Tuesday, August 23, 2011

"magrin of errot"
"Make that: "The magrin of ERROR"
Try again... margin of error.

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