It's a lost prize that stings for Republicans: How could Mitt Romney lose Wisconsin just five months after Gov. Scott Walker won it?
While nationally Romney barely surpassed GOP nominee John McCain's popular vote total in 2008 (58.6 million votes for Romney vs 58.3 million for McCain), in Wisconsin, the former Massachusetts governor surged past McCain by about 11 percentage points.
Romney had more votes than McCain in the bright red suburban Milwaukee counties. He even gained votes in dark-blue Milwaukee and Dane counties.
Meanwhile, President Barack Obama didn't perform as well as he did in Wisconsin in 2008 — his vote total was 4.4 percentage points less Tuesday than it was in 2008.
But statewide, neither Romney's gains nor Obama's losses were deep enough to change the outcome of the election.
And when you compare it to the vote count in the June gubernatorial recall election, Obama significantly outperformed Democrat Tom Barrett, while Romney only did slightly better than Walker.
The question of how Romney lost will be analyzed for months and years to come by political pundits and the media, but here are some reasons, according to an analysis by Patch and an interview with Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll:
Romney didn't make enough gains over Walker: Although about a half million more residents voted for president than did in the June gubernatorial recall election, Romney only received about 73,000 more votes than Walker.
Walker received about 1.34 million votes in June. This week, Romney got about 1.41 million and Obama about 1.611 million.
Take Waukesha County, for example. Walker won the county by 45 percentage points, outpolling Tom Barrett there by about 96,000 votes. Romney won Waukesha County by 35 percentage points, beating Obama by about 84,000 votes.
Contrast that with Milwaukee County: Despite his statewide win, Walker lost that deep-blue county to Barrett by 27 percentage points, or about 107,000 votes. But Romney did worse than Walker in Milwaukee County, losing to Obama by 34 percentage points, or about 167,000 votes.
Even in counties that were red, they weren't red enough: Larger, northern counties - such as Brown and Marathon - went for Romney, but not by enough gains to deliver fatal blows to Obama.
"You didn't see big Romney wins, you just saw minimal wins," Franklin said. "The Obama campaign benefited from that by not having big net Republican votes there that they had to then make up somewhere else. Instead, they could get along pretty well."
Walker won Brown County, 60 percent to 40 percent in June; Romney just barely won it - 50.4 percent to 48.6 percent over Obama. In Marathon County, Romney won it 52.5 to 46.4 over Obama, with about 4,000 more votes than Obama. But in June, Marathon County voters gave Walker nearly 15,000 more votes than they gave Barrett.
"You have got to be awfully happy to only lose by 4,000 in a county that was lost by 15,000 by your party in an election just five months ago," Franklin said.
Many northern and western counties swung from Walker to Obama: Counties that had a history of voting Democratic, including re-electing Jim Doyle as governor in 2006, suddenly swung hard red, voting for Walker over Barrett, and Republican Ron Johnson over Democrat Russ Feingold for U.S. Senate in 2010, and again for Walker in the June recall, Franklin said.
"If you look at the map today, there are still several red counties in that (northern and western side) region, but they're not that many and there are many blue counties," he said.
"The Obama people seemed to do relatively well by holding down their losses in some Republican areas and doing better in the west and the north than Barrett in either 2010 or the recall," Franklin said.
Obama's lead over McCain in 2008 was too steep to reverse: In 2008 Obama crushed McCain by 14 points, about 415,000 votes.
In Tuesday's election, Romney surged ahead of McCain, adding about 11 percentage points or more than 149,600 votes in Wisconsin. At the same time, Obama lost ground, ratcheting down his 2008 total by about 74,000 votes - or 4.4 percentage points.
Even that combination just wasn't enough.
Vote totals in key counties in recent elections
'08 presidential race Gubernatorial recall '12 presidential race County Obama (D) McCain (R) Barrett (D) Walker (R) Obama (D) Romney (R) Milwaukee 319,819 149,445 250,476 143455 320,654 153,635 Dane 205,984 73,065 176,407 77,595 215,389 83,459 Ozaukee 20,579 32,172 14,095 34,303 19,075 35,991 Waukesha 85,339 145,152 58,234 154,316 77,617 161,567 Washington 25,719 47,729 16,634 52,306 23,136 54,709 Racine 53,408 45,954 40,287 45,526 52,887 49,173 6-county total
710,848 493,517 556,133 507,501 708,758 538,534 Source: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board; Associated Press
The second issue is turnout. Look at the republican numbers versus democratic numbers in that tabulation. The republican numbers are pretty consistent across all three elections. The democratic numbers dip in the non-presidential election. As always, turnout favors democrats. This not only tells the story of these two results, but also explains the bogus "voter fraud" claims from the right used to justify voter suppression laws. Finally, the presidential election focuses on the policies and attitudes of the national parties, not just the local state parties. The dismissive attitude of national republicans towards the vast majority of the US electorate who are not "makers" (i.e. business owners, NOT employees), the misogynistic attitudes toward women, and the xenophobic, stereotyped beliefs about immigrants all reflect on the republican presidential candidate more so than the statewide candidate. Repubs need to change these attitudes or become obsolete.
Did Walker truly misrepresent himself, or are you just misrepresenting his positions? Are you really claiming that his statement about adding 250k jobs in his first term was a valid reason to attempt to recall him after only 1 year in office? You seem to be forgetting that Walker was told (before he even took office, and in no uncertain terms) that the unions would never negotiate with Walker. How can you honestly say that it was Walker's fault (to the point of a recall) for not negotiating with the unions?
Vey, how do you define "middle class"? Is it a group of people that hands control to the government to determine what is best for them? Is it the group of people that want to equalize success because it isn't fair that their neighbor owns a jetski and they don't? Is it the group of people that expect to be taken care of regardless of how much or how little they contribute to society? Then yes, B.O. is for the middle class. Veryvile also wrote: "...We want the Affordable Care Act to cover and protect more Americans with health care..." We all want people to be able to have access to and afford health care. But B.O.Care has put the burden of paying for that onto the real middle class. My health care has gone up almost $2,000 since B.O.Care was passed, will go up another $1,000 next year, and another $800 (projected) in 2014. And yes, all of it due to B.O.Care. B.O.Care did NOTHING to solve the health care issue!
Veryvile also wrote: "...We want the kamikaze republicans against all tax increases to agree to revenue so the country can continue to recover..." Supply side economics is simple Very, the more money you pull from private sector pockets, rich or poor, the less you have to move the economy. How about instead of taxing we cut waste. We spent less money under Bush43 and that was with 2 wars going on! Veryvile also wrote: "...We can not allow the GOP to ruin Medicare and Social Security..." Medicare and Social Security are already ruined. We need to make some major changes. Leaders like Paul Ryan have brought forward solutions for starting talks, but the Liberals just cover their ears and start babbling incoherently. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIrltAkTf38 Veryvile also wrote: "...When the only thing the GOP stands for in being the one percent and protecting the one percent that do not represent most of the country.... You have no clue what you are talking about. My boss has made the comment that there is no way he would start his business today. Too many regulations, too many agencies to deal with and too much money going to the feds. Veryvile finally wrote: "...It is time the wealthy pay more taxes and don't get any more tax cuts ad nauseum..." And again, that much less money to stimulate the economy.
WHY THE HELL ARE SPENDING SO DAMN MUCH!!!
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334783.php
I understand your point; however, your purported end result appears misguided. President Obama is a shrewd politician. He weighed the odds that supporting a gubernatorial candidate who had already lost the previous election would likely do him (i.e., Obama) more harm than good; the chances were too great that Barrett would lose again. This could only harm Obama in his run for re-election. Same thing applies to Obama’s absence of support during the Chicago teacher’s strike, especially in view of the fact that his Democratic ally and friend Rahm Emanuel was leading the charge against the teacher’s union. Quite the choice: side with the union and betray your ally and former White House Chief of Staff; or side with your ally and undermine your support received from organized labor (and God-forbid, jeopardizing Ohio and Michigan union backed support).
You state that slaying the ALEC dragon is “not a situation that can be fixed in the short term.” I reply that it is not a situation likely to be fixed at all, by President Obama or anyone else who is either a Republican or Democrat. Thus, your ALEC justification appears to ring hollow.
Citizens United, if it really matters.
Although Walker's reforms have worked in terms of balancing the budget, Walker's lack of tact when it comes to dealing with the unions didn't reflect his brown lunch bag attitude he campaigned with. Were the union's uncooperative initially, yes, but after it was apparent the union stood to lose everything they most definitely wanted to come to the bargaining table. In the end Walker refused changes to his bill excluding exceptions for some of the most dangerous jobs, police and firefighters. As someone who does take a brown paper bag to work every day I find that I don't agree with his methods. This state has become as polarized as the rest of the nation and its not just Walker, the Democrats who left for Illinios are equally guilty. This is Wisconsin where we are moving forward, progressing, and compromising, not like Washington.
Governor Walker's own Capitol police are suing him over their right to collectively bargain. host.madison.com/news/local/cri… An association representing law enforcement agencies including University of Wisconsin officers and Capitol police has filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of a state law effectively ending collective bargaining for most public workers. The lawsuit filed Tuesday by the Wisconsin Law Enforcement Association makes similar arguments as a lawsuit brought by Madison teachers and Milwaukee city workers. A judge in that case in September overturned major portions of the law as it pertained to school district employees and local government workers. Read more: http://host.madison.com/news/local/crime_and_courts/law-enforcement-group-sues-over-collective-bargaining-law/article_e25e4986-2dce-11e2-92df-001a4bcf887a.html#ixzz2C8h8z67I...
Can the US cut taxes and balance the budget by letting the red states secede? Interesting story wapo.st/ZKaUZx via @Jane_WI The Confederacy of Takers By Dana Milbank, Nov 14, 2012 12:10 AM EST The Washington Post Published: November 13 President Obama’s opponents have unwittingly come up with a brilliant plan to avoid the “fiscal cliff.” They want to secede from the union. ...Red states receive, on average, far more from the federal government in expenditures than they pay in taxes. The balance is the opposite in blue states. The secession petitions, therefore, give the opportunity to create what would be, in a fiscal sense, a far more perfect union.... Yet would-be rebels from the red states should keep in mind during the coming budget battle that those who are most ardent about cutting government spending tend to come from parts of the country that most rely on it.
http://thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com/2012/11/nine-wisconsin-goptea-party-legislators.html November 13, 2012 Nine Wisconsin GOP/Tea Party Legislators Go Over The Cliff ... The call by nine Wisconsin legislators for the arrest of federal government officials if they implement the health-care marketplace "exchange" designed to help Wisconsin residents find health insurance is nothing short of a mass Thelma-and-Louise-or-Jonestown political move: Rep. Chris Kapenga (R-Delafield) is one of the nine from Wisconsin who told the Campaign for Liberty he would back legislation to arrest federal officials who took steps to implement Obamacare in Wisconsin. He said he believes the health care law is unconstitutional, despite the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that the passes constitutional muster.... In addition to Kapenga, those listed as supporting the Campaign for Liberty's positions are Sen. Mary Lazich of New Berlin; .....It's one thing to grieve the outcome of an election. It's another to way overstep your role, the federal system, and the Constitution - - and in the process stir up voters and constituencies who look to leaders for good information and rational conduct. ...
PPP & Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP tie for 1st place in polling. http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/fordham-study-public-policy-polling-deemed-most-accurate